The global landscape for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies is rapidly evolving, moving away from a single, unified market towards a fragmented ecosystem. Across Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia-Pacific (EMEA and APAC), countries are increasingly implementing sophisticated controls that shape who can access digital asset exchanges and at what cost. This concerted effort by national authorities is quietly giving rise to a new “pay-to-exit” model, where accessing or exiting the crypto market in certain regions now comes with specific requirements, often involving local licensing, higher fees, or navigating restricted channels.
Belarus Leads the Way in Tightening Digital Borders
A stark illustration of this trend comes from Belarus, which significantly expanded its platform blocking efforts in December. These measures have severely restricted access to foreign cryptocurrency exchanges and fortified a perimeter around its High-Tech Park (HTP) for residents engaging in digital asset activities. This isn't just about simple censorship; it's a strategic move that fits into a broader global playbook. Authorities are leveraging telecom blocklists, app-store removals, and stringent Know Your Customer (KYC) requirements to dictate how citizens can interact with the same Bitcoin (BTC) and USDT order books available elsewhere.
The practical upshot is a de facto return of capital controls, albeit wrapped in a digital guise. Passports, IP ranges, and local licenses now determine which trading venues are accessible and, critically, the price of exiting the crypto market. Belarus’s telecom registry, BelGIE, consistently adds new domains to its restricted list, leading to ISP-level blocking. Local reports confirmed fresh blocks on foreign exchange front-ends, further solidifying a legal framework that funnels dealing with Belarusian persons solely through approved HTP operators and severely curtails peer-to-peer (P2P) activity.
Adding to these domestic restrictions, the European Union’s latest sanctions will bar Belarusians from holding wallets at EU providers starting February 24, 2025. This removes a crucial custody escape valve, leaving residents with the stark choice of routing through approved HTP operators or venturing into less regulated “gray rails” for their digital asset holdings.
A Global Pattern of Digital Fragmentation
The tools for enforcing these digital borders are both straightforward and swift. DNS and IP blocks redirect traffic at the carrier level, app stores remove mobile access, and exchanges erect KYC walls that prevent new and existing users from accessing services based on their residency. Russia’s actions in December, which included new blocks on platforms like Snapchat and restrictions on FaceTime, demonstrate how quickly content filters can extend across various consumer applications, according to Reuters. The same levers, when applied to exchange domains, API gateways, and wallet interfaces, create immediate disconnections for retail and small institutional users, forcing their flow into either licensed local venues or unregulated bridge services.
This pattern is far from exclusive to Belarus and Russia. India, for instance, launched its second wave of crackdowns against offshore platforms on October 1, 2025. The Financial Intelligence Unit of India (FIU-IND) issued notices to 25 Virtual Asset Service Providers (VASPs), ordering URL and app blocks for non-registration under anti-money laundering (AML) rules, as reported by The Economic Times. The pathway back to compliance is clearly defined: register, pay penalties, and then operate under supervision. Binance, a major global exchange, exemplifies this, having registered with FIU earlier in 2024 and subsequently paying a hefty ₹188.2 crore penalty, approximately $2.25 million, according to Reuters.
Other nations are following suit:
- Thailand formalized its own perimeter on June 28, 2025, coordinating with law enforcement and the Digital Economy ministry to block Bybit, OKX, CoinEx, XT, and 1000X for operating without a local license, as stated by the Thai SEC.
- Indonesia shifted supervision from its Commodity Futures Trading Regulatory Agency (Bappebti) to the Financial Services Authority (OJK) and Bank Indonesia on January 10, 2025. This move lays the administrative groundwork for license-gated access and tighter on- and off-ramps for crypto, according to OJK’s joint press note.
The Market Impact: Concentrated Liquidity and Higher Costs
The market structure impact of these tools is significant. As access narrows, liquidity naturally concentrates on compliant venues. Aggregate market depth becomes more venue-dependent rather than purely asset-dependent. Kaiko’s 2025 analysis shows that Bitcoin depth held up on well-regulated exchanges, while altcoin market depth experienced a decline earlier in the year. When jurisdictions force user exits through URL and app removals, markets typically experience:
- Short-term dislocations
- Wider spreads and higher slippage
- Premiums on local fiat and stablecoin pairs on the remaining accessible ramps, until trading flows reroute.
Actions like those in the Philippines, which cut access to Binance, created similar patterns of increased withdrawal risk and limited access to fiat rails. While Belarus is a relatively small player in global crypto volumes, the local perimeter it establishes is crucial for its residents and market makers.
“The return of capital controls is stealth, API level, and instantaneous. Compliance is turning into a market share strategy in APAC, and the cost of custody and exit has changed.”
Market makers pricing added operational and compliance risks can lead to thinner local books, widening fees and bid-ask spreads. For altcoins, the impact is even more pronounced due to smaller maker inventories and more fragmented hedging routes. Regional data confirms that access controls and actual usage can coexist; Chainalysis ranks Europe as the largest crypto region by value received in 2025, with Russia leading EMEA inflows, suggesting that headline blocks don't always equate to a complete halt in practical usage.
Three Emerging Enforcement Models
Across EMEA and APAC, three distinct enforcement models are now visible:
- Full Geo-Block: This routes traffic away at the carrier layer and through app stores, with Belarus and Thailand being clear examples.
- License Gating with Onshore Silos: Countries like Malaysia and Türkiye have used this approach, creating market share for domestic regulated exchanges without implementing a total ban, according to the Securities Commission Malaysia’s digital assets framework.
- Register-to-Reenter Path: India exemplifies this model, where notices, blocks, registration, and fines strand non-compliant liquidity while gradually pulling volume back to compliant pools over time.
Each model produces a different time profile for spreads and depth, but they all contribute to the fragmentation of the global order book.
Navigating Forward Risks in 2026
The forward risks for 2026 suggest a continuation and intensification of these trends. Belarus is likely to add more domains to BelGIE and increase pressure on P2P operators. India could issue further FIU blocks if current notices don't result in registrations and fines, with MeitY orders pushing enforcement through app stores and ISPs. Thailand may extend blocks to wallet front-ends and domains attempting to circumvent existing restrictions.
Even countries like Pakistan are drifting towards regulated frameworks that could introduce licensing with access limits for foreign platforms, while the UAE’s VARA has shown a preference for compliance-driven geo-fencing against unlicensed solicitations, which channels flow rather than completely shutting it off.
Order routing behavior will continue to shift as venues strengthen KYC perimeters and telecom regulators add blocks. API and IP geofences push users towards VPNs, OTC desks, P2P services, and custodial bridges, inevitably reducing transparent price discovery and impairing risk models that rely on consolidated order books. OTC share often rises in regions where exchange access narrows, and custody risk migrates to less supervised providers, particularly where wallet access through EU-domiciled services is closed to specific nationalities. The Belarusian “two-wall system,” combining the HTP perimeter with an EU wallet ban by residency, significantly increases the chance that users will adopt gray custodianship, which often lacks robust client asset protections.
A New Playbook for Traders and Treasurers
For traders and treasurers operating in this evolving landscape, a durable playbook is essential:
- Map Venue Access: Clearly understand venue accessibility by jurisdiction.
- Segment Hedging: Diversify hedging strategies across licensed pools with stable rails.
- Expect Basis Shocks: Anticipate repeated basis shocks on regional pairs after enforcement steps.
- Leverage Data: Utilize resources like Kaiko’s exchange ranking for venue selection and depth snapshots, and Chainalysis regional flow data to anticipate how quickly volumes reroute after ISP and app changes.
- Buffer Altcoins: Allocate explicit buffers for slippage and working capital for altcoin pairs, as these books tend to compress first when local takers disappear.
- Onshore Inventories: For teams with regional customers, serve inventories from onshore venues whenever possible.
- Redundant Settlement: Maintain redundant settlement rails to prevent block-order downtime.
The access wall is moving, and its price impact is already evident at the edges of the market. Compliance is increasingly becoming a market share strategy in APAC, while India’s register, pay, and resume model buys supervised resumption for major platforms. License gates are carving out liquidity silos in EMEA without completely switching off crypto activity. Belarus’s December blocks serve as a stark reminder of how rapidly a country can redraw the perimeter for who sees which order book and at what cost. This new era demands adaptability, strategic foresight, and a deep understanding of the fragmented digital asset landscape.
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