Is the Bitcoin Bull Run Still Alive? 5 Critical Signals to Watch

Is the Bitcoin Bull Run Still Alive? 5 Critical Signals to Watch

Despite persistent bullish narratives from prominent figures like Michael Saylor and institutional players such as BlackRock, Bitcoin's price has recently experienced a sharp decline, breaching key support levels. This discrepancy between strong buying claims and falling prices underscores a crucial market dynamic: actual liquidity and marginal flow dictate price action far more than mere rhetoric.

Bitcoin's recent drop below $106,400 directly coincided with four consecutive days of negative spot ETF flows. BlackRock’s IBIT, a significant source of daily demand, recorded substantial redemptions totaling $714.8 million. This shift meant authorized participants redeemed ETF shares for underlying Bitcoin, then sold that Bitcoin into the market, flipping a primary source of demand into a source of supply. This mechanical impact transforms the daily bid that once absorbed volatility into selling pressure, aligning with broader digital asset fund outflows and Bitcoin's struggle at critical price points.

Derivatives and Macro Pressures Weigh Heavy

The derivatives market has also added to the downward pressure. The CME three-month futures premium cooled to an annualized 4-5%, reducing the incentive for institutional carry trades. Simultaneously, funding rates on perpetual swaps occasionally turned negative, a setup that accelerates downturns as leveraged long positions are forced to de-risk and liquidate.

"Slow, scheduled spot accumulation from corporates or sovereign entities does not offset forced unwinds on leverage or redemptions on regulated products that translate directly to spot sells."

Macroeconomic factors further complicate the picture. A rebounding U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) towards 98-100 and a persistent U.S. 10-year yield near 4.1% maintain restrictive real rates. Both a stronger dollar and tight real yields typically compress global liquidity, exerting pressure on long-duration risk assets like Bitcoin, which continues to respond to these tactical impulses.

Lingering Supply and On-Chain Ambiguity

Supply-side narratives also persist as potential headwinds. The extended Mt. Gox rehabilitation timeline (now October 2026) keeps a recurring overhang in focus, even with staggered distributions. Moreover, post-halving economics have pushed Bitcoin hashprice near cycle lows, creating ongoing incentives for miners to monetize their treasury holdings during market stress.

Intriguingly, several prominent on-chain and cycle monitors, including the 2-Year MA Multiplier, Pi Cycle Top, and RHODL Ratio, have failed to reach the euphoric levels observed in previous cycles, even near recent highs. These metrics are currently trending towards distribution and mean reversion, indicating fading flow support. This could suggest either an extended bull run with diminishing returns or simply a significant distribution phase.

5 Critical Signals to Track for Bull Run Health

The near-term trajectory for Bitcoin depends heavily on a reversal in spot ETF flows and an expansion of derivatives basis. A continued series of net outflows from major U.S. spot ETFs (like IBIT and FBTC), coupled with a subdued CME basis (near or below 5% annualized) and flat-to-negative funding, would likely prolong this distribution phase. In this scenario, failure to reclaim $106,400 sets $100,000 as the next battleground, with potential further drops into the mid-to-high $90,000s.

For the bull run to regain momentum, we need to see a return of multi-day net creations in the $300-$800 million range across the ETF complex, a basis expanding above 8-10% annualized, and a softer U.S. dollar. This combination would allow Bitcoin to retest $110,000 to $115,000 and reignite the debate about a new cycle top.

To ascertain the health of the Bitcoin bull run, focus on these 5 critical signals:

• ETF Flows: Look for sustained multi-day net creations from major issuers (IBIT, FBTC). Persistent redemptions signal a turn from demand to supply.
• Fund Flows: Broad inflows across the digital asset fund universe, especially Bitcoin-led, indicate institutional re-engagement.
• Leverage Conditions: A rising CME basis (above ~7-8% annualized) and positive, stable funding suggest healthy risk appetite.
• Macro Liquidity: A weaker U.S. dollar (DXY < 97) and easing 10-year yields historically support bullish momentum.
• Mining Supply Pressure: Rising hashprice and stable or decreasing miner selling suggest comfortable absorption of new supply.

Until daily spot ETF creations consistently return and Bitcoin reclaims $106,400, the market remains in a phase of distribution and digestion, with the marginal seller currently dominating price action.

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Source: CryptoSlate