Bitcoin (BTC) currently trades around $101,328, having erased a brief recovery that briefly pushed its price to $103,885. This recent price action confirms on-chain data indicating fading demand, long-term holders selling into weakness, and the market testing structural supports last seen during mid-cycle corrections. With two recent dips below $100,000, a path back to bullish footing requires two clear reversals, as outlined in a November 5th Glassnode report.
Bitcoin's Urgent Need: Positive ETF Flows & $112,500 Reclaim
For Bitcoin to reverse its downward trend and avoid a deeper correction, two critical conditions must be met:
- Net Positive US Spot Bitcoin ETF Flows: After two weeks of daily outflows ranging from $150 million to $700 million, institutional demand must decisively turn positive.
- Reclaim $112,500 as Support: Bitcoin's price must not only reclaim but also firmly hold the Short-Term Holders’ (STH) cost basis at $112,500.
Without both these reversals, Bitcoin risks sliding towards the Active Investors’ Realized price near $88,500, a level historically associated with more profound corrective phases.
Structural Weakness & The $112,500 Hurdle
Bitcoin has consistently failed to hold above $112,500, which represents the average acquisition price for coins held less than 155 days. Trading below this level means STHs sit on unrealized losses, fostering inherent selling pressure. The current 11% discount from this threshold is significant enough to invite further downside if new support doesn't emerge.
At $100,000, roughly 71% of the circulating supply remains in profit, positioning the market near the lower bound of the 70% to 90% equilibrium typically observed during mid-cycle slowdowns. While this zone might produce brief relief rallies, sustained recoveries demand prolonged consolidation and renewed demand. A transition of a larger share of supply into the loss zone could trigger a deeper bearish phase.
The Relative Unrealized Loss currently stands at 3.1%, suggesting an orderly revaluation rather than panic-driven capitulation. However, this cushion is notably thinner than the over 10% seen during the 2022-2023 bear market, indicating limited downside protection.
Long-Term Holders Show Quiet Distribution
A notable shift has been observed in long-term holder (LTH) behavior. Since July 2025, this cohort has quietly shed approximately 300,000 BTC, reducing their supply from 14.7 million to 14.4 million. Unlike past cycles where LTHs sold into strength during rallies, they are now selling into weakness as prices drift lower, signaling fatigue and reduced conviction.
Accounting for new maturations (coins aging past 155 days), LTHs have spent around 2.4 million BTC since July 2025. Excluding these maturations, this represents a substantial 12% of the circulating supply, indicating significant, persistent sell-side pressure operating beneath the market's surface.
Institutional Caution & Derivative Market Trends
Institutional demand has sharply cooled. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded consistent net outflows over the past two weeks, a stark contrast to strong inflows throughout September and early October that supported price resilience. This trend suggests profit-taking and reduced appetite for new exposure. Spot market activity confirms this, with the Cumulative Volume Delta Bias turning negative across major exchanges like Binance, indicating sustained net sell pressure. Coinbase, while relatively neutral, shows little buy-side absorption.
The derivatives market reinforces this defensive tone. In perpetual futures, the Directional Premium (interest paid by long traders) has significantly declined from $338 million per month in April to about $118 million, signaling an unwinding of speculative positioning towards neutrality. Options markets further underscore this caution, with elevated demand for puts as traders prioritize downside protection. Short-term implied volatility spiked during the selloff, and while it has somewhat retraced, put premiums at the $100,000 strike remain high. Taker activity primarily exhibits negative delta positioning (buying puts, selling calls), favoring defensiveness over risk-taking.
The Road Ahead: Two Flips for Bitcoin's Future
Bitcoin’s break below the Short-Term Holders' cost basis and its stabilization around $100,000 marks a decisive market shift. While it mirrors prior mid-cycle slowdowns, sustained long-term holder distribution and ongoing ETF outflows underscore weakening conviction. The market is in a fragile equilibrium: oversold but not panicked, cautious yet structurally intact.
The next directional impulse hinges on whether renewed demand can absorb ongoing distribution and decisively reclaim $112,500. Until ETF flows turn net positive and price reclaims $112,500, Bitcoin bulls lack the necessary ammunition to reverse the structural weaknesses currently afflicting the market, leaving the door open for a deeper correction.
Source: CryptoSlate
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